(Re-)Budgeting during Trump’s 90 days: the relevance of Scenario Thinking

17/04/2025

When you are being shaved, you must sit still?

Dear business leader,

When I wrote my New Year’s letter and with that letter launched “Managing Uncertainty” as our global threon theme for the first semester of 2025, not all my colleagues were convinced that the theme would be relevant for a whole semester. President Trump would launch some initiatives in January, Europe would know how to react, whether happy or unhappy, … and life would go on. We wish they would have been right…

 

“Als je geschoren wordt moet je stilzitten” (in English, and imagining you are a sheep: “When you are being shaved, you must sit still”)

 

I was amusingly reminded of this old Dutch saying when recently listening to the evening news where a number of small stock market investors were asked about their reactions and plans after the stock market crash that followed President Trump’s tariff decisions. The older man that was interviewed used the old saying to express that he wasn’t planning to take immediate and drastic decisions on his investment portfolio as long as the situation was so challenging and uncertain.

That’s also the (mostly wise) positioning of many decision-makers we talk to in import-/export-sensitive markets or by extension a broader group of decision-makers that are cautiously looking whether the resulting trade war will put us in a structural recession.

So while for many decision-makers the current positioning is clear (“Sit still while being shaved”), we see many of them being rather paralysed on the way forward:

  • How to do our budget rebalancing round with so much uncertainty?
  • How to start the 2026 budget process under these conditions?

 

That’s where we at threon are convinced that Scenario Thinking can bring a lot of value and resilience to the budgeting processes above:

  • Value because structured scenario thinking makes you reflect not only on the risks but also the opportunities each of maximum 4 main scenarios can bring. It can allow you to be the fastest mover when the effective scenario becomes concrete.
  • Resilience because consolidating the different ideas, fears, opinions of your management team in validated scenarios, scenario plans and scenario budgets, will strongly impact the confidence your leadership will express towards the organization. Yes, times are uncertain and not pleasant. But yes, we are prepared for whatever happens.

 

Do you also see potential to improve the shared view of your leadership team on concrete risks and opportunities of the main scenarios ahead of you, then I can already share you these 5 tips that helped our customers:

  1. Visualize the main uncertainty drivers your leadership team has in mind when looking ahead (they might not be all the same): define and select a maximum of 4 scenarios you want to consider.
  2. Align on risks AND opportunities you link with each of the maximum 4 scenarios you have retained in step 1.
  3. Define the high-level impact on your operational budget (RUN) in each of the 4 scenarios and prepare on concrete countermeasures you will take for each of the scenarios.
  4. Align on the relevance/ value impact of your top 10/ top 15 main change initiatives in each of the 4 scenarios:
    • What are the no regret initiatives (valid in all scenarios)
    • What will be put on hold?
    • What would you start to capture new opportunities?
  5. Define how you will track the evolution of the different scenarios and make sure that your governance plan to lead the action plan (when the final scenario becomes effective) is crystal clear.

 

At threon – strategy delivered, we’ve seen how uncertainty can paralyse businesses. But we’ve also seen how, with the right support, it can drive transformation, innovation, and growth. Our mission at threon is to give you the tools, insights, and strategies you need today, to navigate through these challenges and create opportunities out of adversity.

I am personally reaching out to organizations that recognise this moment as a time to act, to equip your business with the resilience it needs. Our experts are ready to partner with you to design tailored solutions that directly address your unique challenges.

Not the time for big consulting tracks? Fully understand!

Our approach guides you to the 5 best practice steps above in a maximum of 4 weeks and keeps the ownership on your side. We are guiding, not taking over!

But time is of the essence. I invite you to contact me directly to discuss how we can help. Let’s work together to turn uncertainty into your competitive advantage.

Warm regards, 

Tom Dedecker
CEO, threon